"Thirteen Five" PV can see this breaking six o'clo
"Thirteen Five" period, the PV market will enter a new stage of development. There is an urgent need for a breakthrough in the existing policy, innovation policy and mechanisms.
With the implementation of the introduction of sub-resource area and the annual benchmark price policy guidance scale and filing system, the development of the domestic photovoltaic power plants concentrated show explosive growth, but large-scale photovoltaic power plant to concentrate on building a short time in the western and northern regions, so that a high proportion of abandoned light limited power, a substantial increase in demand subsidies, irregularities in some areas of project management, planning and construction is not complete and other issues highlighted.
In a distributed PV market, the performance of many policy focus, lack of market reaction, although the number of policies and efforts are great, but the pace of development and distributed PV policy is expected, with the photovoltaic industry expectations are still large gaps.
"Thirteen Five" period PV market will enter a new stage of development, according to "solar energy" target Thirteen Five "development plan (draft)" put forward, "Thirteen Five" during photovoltaic power generation will reach about 20 million per year new kilowatt installed capacity. To gradually solve the problem, we need to have a breakthrough in the existing policy, innovation policy and mechanisms, in order to safeguard national targets to implement, and photovoltaic power generation to meet the development needs and encourage the commercialization of electricity.
In this paper, the recent PV market developments urgent attention and problem-solving policies and mechanisms for analysis.
▼ technological advances, reduce the cost of electricity is the key task
Whether it is the recent "Thirteen Five", or to consider the long-term strategic development, and continuously push forward technological progress, reduce the cost of electricity will be the key tasks of development of photovoltaic industry.
The photovoltaic industry is expected next five years, the cost of photovoltaic power generation can achieve a significant decline, one photovoltaic industry chain efficiency, cut losses by reducing the silicon wafer thickness and lift assembly conversion efficiency can be significantly improved silicon utilization rate is expected to crystalline modules in "thirteen five" period to maintain 0.2-0.3 percent annual absolute efficiency improvement, and second fluidized bed polysilicon and other new silicon production technology can reduce the price of silicon material, the third is to reduce silver the amount of improvement ingot furnace, wire grid refinement, improved screen printing technology is also a possible way to reduce component costs.
Then consider adjusting the possible future impact of monetary policy, a comprehensive analysis of 2020 is expected to reduce the cost of photovoltaic power generation in 2015, based on about one-third. The decline in industrial technology focus and economies of scale, from the national policies (such as photovoltaic leader plans, etc.) also need to be effective guidance.
▼ adjustment and innovation policies and mechanisms for photovoltaic electricity
China's photovoltaic power generation costs over the past few years to achieve a significant decline in the appropriate price level has continued to decrease, but the price adjustment is mainly considered past and current situation. In the photovoltaic industry, rapid technological advances, the price adjustment pace slightly lags behind the development of photovoltaic industry situation and actual demand, resulting in large-scale PV power plants market grab containers, catch the last train of the effect is more obvious, typically as the end of 2011, the first half of 2016 has also begun showing this trend.
According to "Energy Development Strategy Action Plan (2014-2020)" target proposed in 2020 to moderate considering the environmental costs of coal based on the realization of photovoltaic power generation and grid sales price considerably, and therefore should be based on the cost of photovoltaic power generation and trends, establishment of photovoltaic electricity yearly adjustment mechanism. Tariff adjustments may consider a variety of factors and weights given to different degrees, such as consideration of various resource areas or provincial scale urban development, limited power, so as to differentiate the speed of price adjustment appropriate to guide the development of enterprise investment and readjustment.
Through reform project management mode to configure competitive photovoltaic power generation projects, an appropriate increase in electricity prices in a competitive configuration right weight, promote PV electricity price levels decline. In addition, the combination of power transmission and distribution system reform, especially the reform process in the transmission and distribution reform pilot areas, the implementation of new photovoltaic power project subsidy mechanism, and gradually promote the participation of new photovoltaic electricity market.
▼ implementation of subsidy policies to address the issue of subsidies in arrears
Subsidies and photovoltaic power rationing problems are the two key factors plaguing the development of photovoltaic industry, especially the problem of arrears of subsidies from the downstream market to push down to the upstream manufacturers of photovoltaic industry chain have an impact. Since 2015, the grid companies to adjust the tariff subsidy payment program scope, range from simple PV subsidy arrears for large desert power plants into a large desert power plants plus distributed photovoltaic power plants, the scope of the subsidy arrears further expanded.
The main problem of the current subsidy arrears to two points, one power projects subsidized qualification as to the current project directory Treasury fifth subsidies paid only to the project before the end of August 2013 and the grid, meaning and thereafter net power generation project has not received price subsidies, has been the longest two and a half years, and is the sixth installment of the subsidy review directory project is completed before the end of February 2015 and power generation, which means there is still large number of projects are still outside the threshold; second is to delay payment of subsidies.
Overall, the root cause of the problem is that these two renewable energy funds and subsidies for renewable energy tariff gap exists between the funds, and if conditions remain unchanged to maintain the existing policy, the funding gap, "Thirteen Five" period will be further expanded. According to preliminary statistics and estimates, without considering whether the project directory into the issue of subsidies, by 2015 the cumulative gap for renewable energy subsidies at 400 billion yuan, of which the total amount owed photovoltaic funds of 100 billion yuan. If the future of renewable energy price subsidies are still all come from renewable energy tariff additional consideration in 2020 wind power installed capacity of 250 million kilowatts of photovoltaic installed capacity of 150 million kilowatts, according to the current coal, biomass power price does not move, wind power and photovoltaic electricity gradually achieve " energy development strategy action plan (2014-2020) "in the price level in 2020, when the feed-in tariff for renewable energy demand of about 180 billion yuan, while in the current 1.9 / renewable energy tariff levied additional level kWh, will be income collected year renewable energy fund size of about 105 billion yuan, there is a big gap. Thus, expanding the scale of subsidies for renewable energy and channels is a priority.
It recommends that subsidies for electricity demand for the stock part of the financial arrangements certain amount of funds each year to be resolved. For incremental part, by adjusting the level of additional renewable energy tariff, as soon as possible to promote green certificate trading and other means. But can also consider the adoption of environmental taxes, carbon trading, energy taxes in the form of fossil lifting cost of fossil energy, although in addition to carbon trading, the implementation of these measures, there is uncertainty, and even the implementation of the fossil "Thirteen Five" period energy costs may enhance the range is very limited, but as soon as possible to establish the appropriate mechanism is the foundation, will protect photovoltaic and other renewable energy sustainable development play an important role after 2020.
From measures to address the recent PV subsidy issue, the first project subsidized qualification as a problem, in September 2015 the National Energy Board issued "on the implementation of renewable energy project information management," hope that through information technology qualification to replace the directory management audit that for renewable energy power generation projects in the state guidance range scale, through the normal approval or filing, construction inspection and net sale of electricity, subsidies automatically qualify. If funding sustainability issues and subsidies accreditation issue is resolved, the delay payment of subsidies is solved.
▼ soon clear PV Tax Policy
September 2013, Ministry of Finance issued "on the PV VAT policy," which clearly implement preferential 50% VAT Jizhengjitui for solar power, but the implementation of the policy prescribed time limit, to 10 in 2013 January 1 to December 31, 2015. Since China in 2009 has been adjusted VAT mechanism, from production to consumption-type VAT VAT adjustment, there are six photovoltaic power generation project - 8 years of value-added tax, and therefore before the policy expires in 2015, virtually no project to benefit from this policy.
And into 2016, the photovoltaic project after another into the VAT paid on the need for clear photovoltaic give preferential VAT as soon as possible. Comparison with other power sources, the state of wind power, biomass, small hydro etc. VAT implementation of preferential policies, and photovoltaic power generation itself contrast, 50% VAT Jizhengjitui policy can make photovoltaic electricity demand under the same circumstances reduce 0.03 -0.05 yuan / kwh, to some extent, reduce electricity subsidies to narrow the gap between the cost of conventional electricity, photovoltaic parity goal ahead of schedule, while reducing the size of funds between the feed-in tariff for renewable energy demand and renewable energy fund of gap.
▼ consumptive issues need to effectively implement the policy
PV-oriented policy in our country is to advance centralized and distributed PV power plants PV systems, but the western and northern regions of North China large-scale photovoltaic power plants in the total installed capacity of photovoltaic power generation still holds the absolute share. Construction of large-scale concentrated photovoltaic issues and local policy implementation, so that the optical power brownouts abandoned some provinces had risen rapidly in 2015, Gansu, Xinjiang abandoned light shedding rates were 31% and 26%, and since June 30, 2016 PV benchmark price adjustment is the mark of the first half of 2016 is expected to add capacity will significantly increase (a quarter of newly installed capacity that is more than seven million kilowatts), 2016 brownouts provinces above-mentioned problems are likely to be more severe, other "three North" provinces also may be a certain degree of power rationing. Causes in addition to limited power photovoltaic industry to concentrate on building their own solar energy resource-rich regions, but the main reason is that competition in the consumptive various types of power between the new power development space, the cross-channel transmission photoelectric and other serious power shortage consider clean energy and other issues.