Photovoltaic participation in distributed generation market-oriented transactions has a long way to go
It is not an exaggeration to describe the impact of the "531 New Deal" on the photovoltaic industry with the word "sorrows everywhere". On June 6, the symposium between the New Energy Department of the National Energy Administration and representatives of some enterprises in the photovoltaic industry association put forward six opinions on the healthy development of the photovoltaic industry, "increasing the reform of the power system and effectively promoting the market-oriented transaction of distributed power generation. "Pilot" is one of the very important measures that the industry is looking forward to. More industry insiders regard market-oriented transactions as a new spring for the photovoltaic industry. Under the cruel background of de-subsidy, it is understandable to inject a stimulant into the market, but rational analysis shows that the effect of distributed generation market-oriented transactions on improving the profitability of photovoltaic projects is limited and only in stages. In the long run, there is still a long way to go for photovoltaics to fully participate in the future power market and become competitive with traditional energy sources.
Director of Smart Energy Office, System Planning Research Center, East China Institute of CLP Engineering
The original text was published in "China Energy News" on June 18, 2018, with the title: Difficulty in market transactions becomes a life-saving straw for photovoltaics
Distributed power generation market-oriented transactions on photovoltaic income
Lifting is limited
Under the new policy, the subsidy loss quota for projects with indicators is 0.05 yuan/kWh, and the subsidy loss quota for projects without indicators is 037 yuan/kWh (that is, no subsidy is considered). The effect of distributed power generation trading methods on photovoltaic revenue improvement is mainly reflected in: first, it can be sold to nearby industrial and commercial users at a higher price than the benchmark on-grid electricity price; second, nearby transactions do not need to consider transmission and distribution prices outside the transaction scope, reducing Although the transaction cost has been reduced, the "internet fee" in the transaction area still has to be considered.
Under this logic, it is easy to calculate that the market-oriented transaction of distributed generation can make up for the loss of "reduction and compensation". The amount of losses that can be recovered through distributed generation trading methods mainly depends on the amount of electricity that the project participates in the transaction, the transaction price and the "grid fee". For distributed projects that are completely self-consumed, since there is no surplus electricity to participate in transactions, they cannot enjoy the dividends brought by market-oriented transactions. losses to come.
Fortunately, under the existing rules, photovoltaic participation in distributed power generation transactions does not need to assess the deviation of electricity and transaction curves, and the "grid fee" is relatively low under the existing transmission and distribution price mechanism. However, even so, the benefits of the project through distributed transactions are limited, and cannot completely offset the loss of revenue caused by "reduction and supplementation".
Photovoltaic market-oriented transactions in the future electricity market environment
will face even harsher facts
Generally speaking, my country's power system reform is still in its infancy, and the trading rules are relatively simple. The importance of the auxiliary service market for power trading and the reward and punishment mechanism still need to be reflected, and the rationality of the transmission and distribution price mechanism also needs to be improved. However, when the construction of the power market is truly completed in my country, the participation of photovoltaics in distributed power generation transactions in the future will face even more cruel facts.
First, the “interrogation fee” for the electricity part of the transaction is likely to be higher than the current price, and the transaction cost of this part will be further raised after considering the cross-subsidy factor. The reform of my country's power system is not an isolated reform of a certain content. Transmission and distribution prices, power markets, power distribution and sales are all coordinated and integrated reforms. Today, when the photovoltaic industry is complaining, the incremental power distribution network, another main force in the power reform, has long been complaining. One of the main problems faced by incremental power distribution reform is the reasonable reflection of the existing power transmission and distribution price mechanism on power distribution costs. And once it is found through the benchmarking of incremental power distribution business that the "grid-passing fee" of the power distribution part should be raised, distributed photovoltaics will also pay higher transaction costs.
The second is the problem of deviation assessment and power generation curve. Deviation assessment and power generation curve is a hurdle that cannot be bypassed for photovoltaic participation in the future electricity market environment. As we all know, the power generation curve of photovoltaics is uncontrollable, and this problem needs to be solved by purchasing ancillary services, with the improvement of the ancillary service market. This is definitely a considerable cost, which will also lead to a further increase in the cost of photovoltaics participating in distributed generation transactions in the future. And once PV participates in the spot market, these problems will become more prominent.
Recognizing the situation is more important than blind expectations
At present, China's power system reform has just started, and many rules are not perfect, but for photovoltaic projects to participate in distributed generation transactions, it also gives the photovoltaic industry a buffer period to adapt to the power market. Under the background of "reducing and subsidizing" and the existing distributed generation transaction rules, even with the reduction of photovoltaic costs. Photovoltaic projects can achieve considerable returns through distributed power generation transactions, but the industry must also recognize the situation and have a sense of worry about the future power market environment.
There is no doubt that green energy represented by photovoltaics will be the main force of the future energy system. However, the future energy system must not be a system in which energy types and market mechanisms exist in isolation, but a complex system where different energy types and market mechanisms are coupled. Similarly, for PV investment, the consideration in the future is not only how PV itself will benefit from participating in market-based transactions, but how to form a complementary and sustainable integrated energy system in combination with power distribution grids and energy storage. This type of integrated energy system will truly have the competitiveness of future market localization transactions.